证券研究报告の东吴证券SOOCHOW SECURITIES长丝龙头企业集中上调报价美国乙烷较天然气溢价继续收窄能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA执业证书编号：S0600523020004联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn研究助理何亦桢执业证书编号：S0600123050015联系方式：heyzh@dwzq.com.cn2024年5月26日投资要点-基础化工行业の东吴证券SOOCHOW SECURITIES【聚氨酯板块】本周纯MD/聚合MD1/TD1行业均价为18460/17370/14586元/吨，环比分别-107/-13/+49元/吨，纯MD/聚合MD1TDI行业毛利分别为4118/4028/2369元/吨，环比分别-141/-48/+208元/吨。【油煤气烯烃板块】①本周乙烷丙烷/动力煤/石脑油均价分别为1118/4546728/4796元/吨，环比分别+57/+127/-3/+50元/吨。②本周聚乙烯均价为8588元/吨，环比+62元/吨，乙烷裂解/CT0/石脑油裂解制聚乙烯理论利润分别为1839/1836/-157元/吨，环比分别-29/+47/-24元/吨。③本周聚丙烯均价为7700元/吨，环比+108元/吨，PDH/CT0/石脑油裂解制聚丙烯理论利润分别为-49/1446/-360元/吨，环比分别-55/+78/+8元/吨。)【煤化工板块】本周合成氨/尿素/DMF/醋酸行业均价为2942/2318/4692/3133元/吨，环比分别-62/+32/+33/-83元/吨，合成复/尿素/DMF/醋酸行业毛利分别为754/524/-381/253元/吨，环比分别-66/+15/+116/-41元/吨3投资要点-化工行业の东吴证券SOOCHOW SECURITIES【相关上市公司】1)民营大炼化&涤纶长丝：恒力石化、荣盛石化、东方盛虹、恒逸石化、桐昆股份、新凤鸣；2)化工白马：万华化学、宝丰能源、卫星化学、华鲁恒升。1【风险提示】1)项目实施进度不及预期；2)宏观经济增速下滑，导致需求复苏弱于预期；3)地缘风险演化导致原材料价格波动；4)行业产能发生重大变化；5)统计口径及计算误差。目录の东吴证券SOOCHOW SECURITIES■1.本周周报简报2.石油化工周报3.基础化工周报4.风险提示5目录の东吴证券SOOCHOW SECURITIES■1.本周周报简报·1.1.石油化工周报简报·1.2.基础化工周报简报1.1.石油化工周报简报の东吴证券SOOCHOW SECURITIES石油化工行业跟踪简报5%44%03%20245240%190%202452435%2024/52432%26%202452404%PE2024E2025E2026E2024E2026E15.191.0692469051063015491231100610391.052045649103649084186位9.25611547174626753113221020233751849246427412649.49601233sH1553374.45974411469811.73&497.3343516961918615523.7015013972770%4294030%9.4%-0485%1007635%%113950PX42522427406%5.73%MEG449571201.6912617500091PTA5911.4311574.78天7218%228%POY7407.14371天FDY04643-756620904.50550%894643-756626200607467.14001天7308%-177.59489天106天6963%71.1.石油化工周报简报の东吴证券SOOCHOW SECURITIES石油化工行业跟踪简报（续）1737891.0190525775.0054.1014598632104976042971331026661133640996961432667.401054122641174.47201906953413461919.965327.7555976.87116476067.12177309015932007535697106294110785707914767762391.0559.1447624503751272504905947954212764950.1966065616750化EVA12667.00地4505971140000007105.9720996257LDPE9921.435627.4042310500006205.97601.4313354307.4015441000001305.97HDPE4155.9720916100001105.976531.0473894.7EO69000057.426059700040597209050.0021.44233813571384169-1791081.2.基础化工周报简报の东吴证券SOOCHOW SECURITIES基础化江行业跟踪简报533%35%1647%501%2024/24054%1230%1253%1656%27.62%657%031%PE22212023E2024E2023E92752614817141712194751602614478941263908906132935764476467171436%444%2369265%2132%111841%14546279线427567571%47962线42%1392222136420PDH2CTO1446491.2.基础化工周报简报の东吴证券SOOCHOW SECURITIES基础化工行业跟踪简报（续）6084241320%HDPE622%139554568392690016%12392%75003%1447%890034100d1%976030676229%101501213%6048233%593770064516%65101527429%20325%963425%1821173073%19164%29629424%75423390023187%524DMF4692259%3811%313325325%DMC13540220%4%45149725729%221266%953357134502%PA61490045010目录の东吴证券SOOCHOW SECURITIES■2.石油化工周报2.1大炼化指数及项目价差走势2.2聚酯板块2.3炼油板块・2.4化工板块11