证券研究报告の东吴证券SOOCHOW SECURITIES长丝大厂挺价意愿不减煤制烯烃持续表现优异能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA执业证书编号：S0600523020004联系方式：chensx(@dwzg.com.cn研究助理何亦桢执业证书编号：S0600123050015联系方式：heyzh@dwzq.com.cn2024年6月23日投资要点-石油化工行业东吴证券SOOCHOW SECURITIES【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2587.05元/吨，环比-187.65元/吨(环比-6.76%)；国外重点大炼化项目本周价差为1031.64元/吨，环比-39.84元/吨（环比-3.72%）。【聚酯板块】大厂挺价意愿不减，涤纶长丝市场延续上行走势。本周国际原油价格震荡上行，但聚酯原料端供需偏弱，成本端支撑并不十分强势，周内长丝市场的上行动力主要源于龙头大厂对于长丝价格的调控。随着长丝大厂一口价模式的运行，场内低价货源不断消耗，下游客户对于高价长丝虽有抵触，但仍存在刚需性采购需求。本周P0Y/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为7850/8325/9336元/吨，环比分别+43/+79/+68元/吨，P0Y/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为63/112/186元/吨，环比分别+75/+99/+91元/吨，P0Y/FDY/DTY行业库存为28.6/23.2/27.4天，环比分别+2.1/+0.9/-0.1天，长丝开工率为86.74%，环比+0.00pct,产销率为47.14%，环比-11.43pct。下游方面，本周织机开工率为67.52%，环比-0.56pct,织造企业原料库存为9.05天，环比-0.15天，织造企业成品库存为26.18天，环比+0.91天。,【炼油板块】国内成品油：本周汽油柴油/航煤价格均下跌，汽油/柴油航煤价差均缩窄。国外成品油：本周美国汽油/柴油价格上涨、航煤价格持平，汽油/柴油/航煤价差均缩窄。【化工板块】PX:本周PX均价为1039.57美元/吨，环比+0.57美元/吨，较原油价差为420.01美元/吨，环比-19.58美元/吨，PX开工率为83.02%，环比+1.83pct。其他化工品：本周LDPE、苯酚价差表现良好，苯乙烯价差下滑相对较多。2投资要点-基础化工行业东吴证券SOOCHOW SECURITIES【聚氨酯板块】本周纯MD1/聚合MD1/TD行业均价为18700/17650/14310元/吨，环比分别-475/-300/-171元/吨，纯MD1/聚合MD1TDI行业毛利分别为4033/3983/2042元/吨，环比分别-462/-287/-173元/吨。)【油煤气烯烃板块】①本周乙烷丙烷/动力煤/石脑油均价分别为1031/4594/699/4909元/吨，环比分别-57/+103/-31/+137元/吨。②本周聚乙烯均价为8433元/吨，环比-71元/吨，乙烷裂解/CT0/石脑油裂解制聚乙烯理论利润分别为1810/1825/-373元/吨，环比分别+3/+42/-187元/吨。③本周聚丙烯均价为7750元/吨，环比+0元/吨，PDH/CT0/石脑油裂解制聚丙烯理论利润分别为-65/1571/-439元/吨,环比分别-95/+89/-139元/吨【煤化工板块】本周合成复/尿素/DMF/醋酸行业均价为2819/2281/4524/3099元/吨，环比分别-107/-22/-51/-32元/吨，合成复/尿素/DMF醋酸行业毛利分别为627/482/-458/251元/吨，环比分别-97/+5/-15/-64元/吨。3投资要点-化工行业の东吴证券SOOCHOW SECURITIES【相关上市公司】1)民营大炼化&涤纶长丝：恒力石化、荣盛石化、东方盛虹、恒逸石化、桐昆股份、新凤鸣；2)化工白马：万华化学、宝丰能源、卫星化学、华鲁恒升。1【风险提示】1)项目实施进度不及预期；2)宏观经济增速下滑，导致需求复苏弱于预期；3)地缘风险演化导致原材料价格波动；4)行业产能发生重大变化；5)统计口径及计算误差。目录の东吴证券SOOCHOW SECURITIES■1.本周周报简报2.石油化工周报3.基础化工周报4.风险提示5目录の东吴证券SOOCHOW SECURITIES■1.本周周报简报·1.1.石油化工周报简报·1.2.基础化工周报简报1.1.石油化工周报简报の东吴证券SOOCHOW SECURITIES石油化工行业跟踪简报0%2024W6W211%495%2024W621289%157%2024W6212%32747.0%PEPB2023A2024E2025E2026E2023A2024E2025E2026E2024E600346sH13779692869051063012363140411.169.127841459.75987241,1585649&87410354852417.4811.13953&02530227177,53173951146&84603225sH1519231611,849246421321253844122375653,19144115,10847.1311.777350.987.05258474351,13159.3622851524134884874409.004210.7913570.%1031.643984PXMEG4452.14.514431474.140.1959.73%0d5%PTA592071-148924.147850006269POY74728602.10FDY83250078112470.9047.149%DTY1859527.407527.623131465672863904%2.43%6997.14204693350.916752%东吴证券研究所1.1.石油化工周报简报の东吴证券SOOCHOW SECURITIES石油化工行业跟踪简报（续）173278839美元桶4629001472662397681.712214134544967.337701&142609.141040919225407.35138.58105212612034546557137.651056577.496351148.276500152000111882.7827.01583592147.331426922261067921.92557058239.9411615894811291161588944229.9884.918867374075460652197523521002015261035205.12202.477961357499.1014.1613360739.13EVA11176002的006767009450008575041001100000659100957143516243LDPE10600.002.14619100960000519453LLDPE854286229413386189000001359100HDPE845000404100MMA151785721410769.57657542428216642EO670000229100900000459100.1450681714337624347.781500037410082500057.138410081.2.基础化工周报简报の东吴证券SOOCHOW SECURITIES基础化工行业跟踪简报211%00309H36%-541%223%.644%PEPB2023八2024E2025E2026E2024E2024E2615161619784233271121161198144501602621.1982761149412639090612761129956662027571357644766315970444264%75%TDI143104%20423203%646%4594280910B95%42%69091546373MTO4CTO4654344PP4390MTO2据来源：Wd,Bloomberg,91.2.基础化工周报简报の东吴证券SOOCHOW SECURITIES基础化工行业跟踪简报（续）5976229%241520%HDPE8433259%136745182%41341%670011%114925%7700216%177413%8700259%29564100d10%9520649%1%10200d433133%6148341%13%775014%632012899%95505%168424%907010%138479%煤化工产业触171272%182541%2819762776%219657213228171%482759%452421%.45809925125%DMC1360020%.205921%472069%984373%204165%978364%2%1050%PA61471059%660百川盈孚，东吴证券研究所10