国泰君安证券GUOTAI JUNAN SECURITIES票研究2024.05.06评级：增持上次评级：增持量继续修复，天气影响分化加剧细分行业评级行一一2024年五一假期数据，点评餐饮增持酒店增持8021-38677706021-38032683旅游景点和旅行社增持证书编号S0880516030003S0880122050050连锁餐饮增持本报告导读：·投责观，点：重点推荐黄金珠宝、教育、出海、景区方向，)黄金珠宝，相关报告2024.0421公司合规化完成后望大幅提升市占率，推荐行动教青粉笔断东方/卓《旅游客单价首超2019，金价继峡大涨》越教育/思考乐教育；3)海外霄求依旧高景气，推荐名创优品小商品2024.04.07《陈向宏登陆资本市场，黄金价格不断上涨》2024.03.31《餐饮引领复苏，产业链协阿发展》旅行/携程集团；景区中具备可复制能力者仍有配置价值，推荐三特2024.0331《“315"违规企业名单曝光、义乌进出口索道九华旅游：酒店处于历史估值区间底部，格局改善驱动龙头定值阿比高增》2024.03.17券价能力提升，推荐韩江酒店/首旅酒店/华住集团屠事酒店。●五一假期量继峡修复，价恢复度环比下滑。①全国国内旅游出游合计2.95亿人次，同比+7.6%，按可比口径较2019年同期+28.2%；国内1究报告游客出游总花费1668.9亿元，同比+12.7%，按可比口径较2019年同期+13.5%，客单价565.73元，恢复至23年的104.74%恢复至19年的88.53%；人次/收入/客单价环比清明假期恢复度416.7/0.81-12.54%；②考虑到整体出游人次恢复度好于长途人次，周边游及县域旅游的下沉势头火热或是导致价恢复度环比下降的主要原因，暴雨天气形响下已有预期，传统景区表现分化。①节前持续强对流天气带来的暴雨影响市场已有预期，从实际表现看，长白山和丽江表现亮眼，新疆天池高客流主要系免票活动影响，九华与黄山在池黄高铁通车后表现符合预期，南方景区受影响更大，其中峨眉等受拖累显著；②县域旅游在平价消费+社媒催化下景气度更高，出游下沉趋势延续，扬州/洛阳/秦皇岛等热门三四线目的地旅游订单平均+11%。安吉/桐庐/都江堰/阳朔热门县域旅游目的地订单平均+36%；③出入境游稳步修复，全国边检机关共保障中外人员出入境同比+35.1%，其中内地居民出入境同比+38%；港澳台居民出入境同比+20.8%。本地商图热度高，饮龙头亮眼。①以北京市商务部数据为例，假期期间北京全市60个重点商圈客流量同比+2.5%，五道口商圈/中关村商圈/望京商圈消费金颜同比分别+1.3倍1.1倍76.9%；②海底捞公布5月14日全国门店累计接待人次约750万，同比去年“五一”前四天+15%，下沉市场门店增长更加明显：③据海口海关统计五一假期首日海口海关共监管离岛免税销售金颜1.15亿元，免税购物人数2.13万人次，人均消费5384元，同比有所下滑，风险提示：霄求复苏不及预期、差旅成本压缩、天气不确定性国泰君安证券GUOTAI JUNAN SECURITIES行业周报表1：国泰君安社服零售行业重点标的叠利预测(2024.0505)收查价市值PE标的名称评行业(元)202342024E2025E2023A2024E2025E周大福1929.HK10.761,07584.0197.52110.89131110周大生002867.SZ15.9717513.1614.8116.72131210002345.SZ6.21553334.465.35黄金171210老风祥600612.SH77.2340422.1425.5429.03181414.941167.078.489.77161412600655.SH5.9323120.2423.1126.041110中国黄金600916.SH11.181889.7312.2014.461913唯品会VIPS.N15.0458081.1783.0088.007>600415.SH8.7548026.7627.9932.031817159878.HK28.751474.486.027.59332419002315.SZ34.331093.794.735.73292319301376.SZ23.53944.136.19231815002803.SZ15.1258345435T5.45171311300592.SZ18.77545.7816129300866.SZ86.3735116.1519.0322.02221816301381.SZ26.461063.344.536.1032603708.SH10.64681361.441.515045601933.SH2.43221-13.291.731.89-17127117市002697.SZ5.40735.615.796.25131312600827.SH8.871583.995.086.454031600729.SH26.0711713.1514.74987002419.SZ4.90572272.472.76252321300622.SZ15.82281.922217142411.HK3.20463423.323.6613143飞亚达A000026.SZ10.25433333.844.22131110专业苏美达600710.SH8.3610910.3010.8812.1011109301078.SZ6.47721.053.144.16682317名创优品9896.HK45.1551818.4528.6934.482818159690.HK22.901714.818.7414.75362012富森美002818.SZ14.331078.068.228.831313601888.SH74.901.55067.1477.3288.97232017王府井600859.SH13.641557.098.369.91221916海南机场600515.SH3.504009.5311.3613.08353600754.SH28.9130910.0216.0017.14311918首旅酒店600258.SH15.341717.959.0210.13221917酒店1179.HK30.3088341.1945.1856.63212016君事酒店301073.SZ24.95490311.201.761574028金陵饭店601007.SH7.09280.601.331.54462118同庆楼605108.SH26.95703.043.674.6523199869.HK3.32381.812.263.032117136862.HK17.8890544.9951.7158.41201815九毛九9922.HK4.96654.506.047.27141192of16国泰君安证券GUOTAI JUNAN SECURITIES行业周报广州酒家603043.SH18.301045.506.437.521916142150.HK2.77430.131.622.453262718百胜中国9987.HK294.4064.6170.6376.48161514LKNCY.O21.0041928.4835.3243.411512100中青旅600138.SH10.87791.943.254.094119300144.SZ10.86285-1.1012.2314.18-2592320黄山游600054.SH12.15894234.855.23211817603136.SH18.38341.471.672.02232117002627.SZ4.99371301.141.32283228景区长白山603099.SH20.60551381.982.51402822002159.sZ15.29271281.701.9516141992.HK3.733.073.543.9512化603199.SsH33.85371.752.052.20211817002707.SZ6.66650321212.142055431OT0780.HK20.7542821.9927.1532.911916增持A9961.HK385.402392t130.71136.72153.84181716300662.SZ20.73412.012.633.3220162北京人力600861.SH19.531119.089.96121120BOSS直聘2076.HK76.6561821.5626.4838.10292316300795.SZ21.98501.882.693.61271914600826.SH8.86472.753.083.24171514605098.SH52.61622.192.933.651282117粉笔2469.HK4.34904458.002015新东方S9901.HK77.101284.155.914931223978.HK2.97231.211.56271915团1769.HK.381.021.502.18221510数据来源：Wind、国泰君安证券研究注：其中美股公司，收盘价、市值单位为美元；港股公司，收盘价、布值单位为港元；净利润均为人民币表2：国泰君安社服零售行业重点标的股息率、分红率、ROE分红率ROE (%标的名称2021202220232021A202242021A2022A餐饮海伦司9869.HK0.0%0.0%4.2%11.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%百货重庆百货600729.SH12.6%12.9%2.3%5.1%153.2%30.9%0.0%餐饮海底捞6862.HK0.1%0.0%0.7%5.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%黄金珠宝周大生002867.SZ4.4%3.1%5.6%4.0%71.1%59.7%24.7%黄金珠宝002345.SZ3.2%3.2%3.2%4.0%50.7%89.2%0.0%专业连锁苏美达600710.SH3.0%3.2%3.6%3.9%45.1%42.8%0.0%专业连锁飞亚达A000026.SZ3.5%2.5%2.2%3.9%32.3%39.1%0.0%专业连锁博士眼镜300622.SZ2.2%3.1%1.9%3.8%91.0%69.2%0.0%餐饮九毛九9922.HK0.9%13%0.2%3.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%百货天虹股份002419.SZ4.4%3.3%1.0%3.3%80.6%48.7%82.5%3of16国泰君安证券GUOTAI JUNAN SECURITIES行业周报黄金珠宝豫园股份600655.SH5.5%5.9%5.9%3.2%35.1%35.5%0.0%电商焦点科技002315.SZ1.4%23%2.6%2.9%100.2%93.3%83.6%电商唯品会VIPS.N0.0%0.0%0.0%2.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%餐饮广州酒家603043.SH1.6%2.2%2.2%2.6%40.7%43.7%0.0%电商吉宏股份002803.SZ0.6%0.0%3.0%2.4%0.0%54.1%61.6%黄金珠宝周大福1929.HK4.3%4.7%11.6%2.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%电商安克创新300866.SZ0.9%1.4%2.3%33.1%42.7%0.0%超市红旗连锁002697.SZ2.9%0.3%8.2%2.3%24.9%123.8%0.0%电商小商品城600415.SH0.6%0.8%0.7%2.3%30.0%32.3%0.0%免税中国中免601888.SH1.3%1.0%2.2%30.3%32.9%0.0%行动教育605098.SH1.0%2.0%5.3%1.9y%108.6%213.0%43.0%黄金珠宝600612.SH1.0%1.1%1.1%1.9%40.4%44.9y%0.0%超市家家悦603708.SH4.0%0.0%0.9%◆1.8%0.0%118.1%0.0%酒店锦江酒店600754.SH0.2%0.2%0.2%1.7%56.4%56.6%0.0%酒店金陵饭店601007.SH0.5%11%111.3%93.7%0.0%专业连锁百果园2411.HK0.0%1.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%餐饮同庆楼605108.SH0.3%0.3%1.5%50.5%20.8%0.0%免税王府井600859.SH0.8%2.9%0.7%1.5%33.9%58.2%0.0%科服务力合科创002243.SZ1.3%13%1.3%1.5%15.4%23.2%0.0%专业连锁名创优品9896.HK0.0%0.1%0.3%1.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%超市百联股份600827.SH1.5%1.5%1.2%1.4%35.6%31.3%0.0%电商赛维时代301381.SZ0.0%0.0%0.9%0.9%0.0%0.0%29.8%景区宋城演艺300144.SZ0.5%0.5%0.5%41.5%-273.8%0.0%酒店君亭酒店301073.SZ0.0%0.5%0.6%109.1%87.2%0.0%国新文化600636.SH1.0%0.4%32.8%0.0%人力资源服G科锐国际300662.SZ0.5%1.0%0.6%0.4%23.5%7.9%0.0%务正元智慧300645.SZ0.2%0.4%0.4%0.3%14.2%9.9%0.0%餐饮0520.HK4.1%3.8%3.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%黄金珠宝菜百股份605599.SH0.0%2.4%3.1%0.0%76.9%77.8%0.0%酒店华住集团-S1179.HK0.0%0.1%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%OTA携程集团1179.HK0.0%0.1%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%餐饮百胜中国9987.HK0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%人力资源服BOSS直聘2076.HK0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%电商汇通达网络9878.HK0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%电商致欧科技301376.SZ0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%电商华凯易佰300592.SZ0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%超市601933.SH0.8%0.8%0.0%0.0%4.6%0.0%0.0%百货600738.SH0.0%1.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%60.9%0.0%专业连锁301078.SZ0.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%10.8%0.0%0.0%免税海南机场600515.SH0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%酒店首旅酒店600258.SH0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%52.4%0.0%0.0%4of16国泰君安证券GUOTAI JUNAN SECURITIES行业周报餐饮奈雪的茶2150.HK0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%餐饮瑞幸咖啡LKNCY.OO0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%景区中青旅600138.SH0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%景区黄山旅游600054.SH0.0%0.6%0.0%0.0%171.1%0.0%0.0%景区天目湖603136.SH1.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%景区三峡旅游002627.SZ2.0%0.0%0.0%69.4%0.0%0.0%景区603099.SH0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%景区三特索道002159.SZ0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%复星旅游文景区1992.HK0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%化景区九华旅游603199.SH0.4%0.5%0.0%0.0%31.1%0.0%0.0%OTA众信旅游002707.SZ0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%OTA同程旅行0780.HK0.0%0.0%0.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%人力资源服北京人力务600861.SH0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%粉笔2469.HK0.0%0.0%10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%数据来源：公司公告，国泰君安证券研究GUO表3：机构持仓情况一览(2024.05.05)行业202304202401变动202304变动百6007385H310.0962838364076◆超市600827sH94108-03558865865-021超市永超市40165340052544594413-0.45电商-155第6410-113新文化1893431442390022435z20662316102景区6000545H18319.1463636217-1466005155H■5.02380-249第56155475-140黄金珠宝6006555H6043中国中晚6018885H1380.63-275超市6037085H481908040百货17-35664526222-230专连锁275.92265.39-38243444178餐饮6030435H9406.4374907146景区中青旅21194201012928211575714825-591606057.02专连锁14811671116667-44540751-64669466497周大872.477529黄金珠宝6006125H27744258.54-68187.498153人力资源服务北京人力6008615H20189.05176.0759675558景区3001445立1,2403211512554595067超市44285403.55-887441096008595H28315423酒店锦江酒店6007545H51658155785-122072006322黄金珠宝537.41466.18619653756031365H70.1860.58-1368第37.673252-5.16酒首旅酒6002585H601314176936商59.79-2392毫34954君亭酒店-250921131583科锐国际231414010220-27727185519307.19834140.5224351725-7103005331012655电商焦点科技67.9746.47-316433802302-108电商66235253-3179毫21921495百货重庆百货6007295H152972073973882数据来源：Wind、国泰君安证券研究